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Micron Technology, Inc.  ·  NASDAQ
Q3 FY2026 Earnings Dashboard  ·  June 24, 2026
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Q3 FY2026 Earnings — Reported June 24, 2026 · After Market Close · Stock +15% After-Hours
Revenue +346% to $41.46B · EPS Crushes Estimates · Q4 Guide of $50B · Record 81% Margins
Micron delivered the biggest quarter in company history and an even bigger forecast. Q3 revenue of $41.46B (+346% YoY) beat the $35.59B consensus by 16%, and adjusted EPS of $25.11 crushed the $20.20 estimate by 24%. GAAP net income reached $28.24B ($24.46/share) versus $1.89B a year ago. But the real shock was the Q4 guidance: ~$50B ± $1B in revenue, roughly $7B above the $42.9B Street estimate. Record gross margins near 81% reflect HBM oligopoly pricing power in a structurally undersupplied market. With Micron's entire 2026 HBM production sold out and CEO Mehrotra guiding market tightness "beyond calendar 2027," the stock rose 15% in extended trading, lifting the entire chip sector. Market cap has pushed past $1 trillion, with shares up ~700% over the past year.
Key Metrics — Q3 FY2026 Actuals (Reported June 24, 2026)
Revenue
$41.46B
+346% YoY · beat $35.59B
Adjusted EPS
$25.11
+998% YoY · beat $20.20
GAAP Net Income
$28.24B
vs. $1.89B year-ago
GAAP EPS
$24.46
vs. $1.68 year-ago
Gross Margin (Adj.)
~81%
Record · from 74.9% in Q2
Q4 Revenue Guide
~$50B
±$1B · vs. $42.9B est.
Adj. EPS Beat
+24.3%
$25.11 actual vs $20.20 consensus
Q4 Guide Surprise
+$7B
$50B guide vs $42.9B Street estimate
2026 HBM Capacity
100% Sold
Entire 2026 HBM output contracted & priced
Strategic Contracts
7 SCAs
4 large · 3 medium · with price floors
Beat / Miss Matrix
Beats
Adjusted EPSEst. $20.20$25.11 (+24%)
RevenueEst. $35.59B$41.46B (+16%)
Q4 Revenue GuideEst. $42.9B$50B (+$7B)
Gross MarginGuide ~81.6%~81% · record
GAAP Net IncomeQ3 FY25: $1.89B$28.24B (+1394%)
Stock Reaction (AH)+15% · lifted chip sector
Risks & Watch Items
Supply / demand balanceFY2028No catch-up until new fabs
HBM leadership vs NvidiaSK Hynix leadsMicron still #2 in HBM
Coordinated capacity adds3 playersCould normalize pricing
Cyclical historyMemoryBoom-bust risk priced out
Stock run1-year+700% · much priced in
Macro overhangHawkish FedDot plot flipped to hike
P&L Summary — Q3 FY2026 vs Q3 FY2025
Select Financial Results — Fiscal Quarter Ended ~May 2026
Revenue$41,456M~$9,300M+346%
Sequential growth (vs Q2 FY26)~+74%$23,860MQoQ
Adjusted Gross Margin~81%74.9%Record
DRAM (incl. HBM) share~79%of revenueCore engine
NAND (Storage) share~21%of revenueRobust
GAAP Net Income$28,240M$1,890M+1394%
GAAP Diluted EPS$24.46$1.68+1356%
Adjusted Diluted EPS$25.11$1.91+998% · Beat
Q4 FY2026 Revenue Guide~$50,000Mvs $42,900M est.+$7B
Implied Q4 QoQ growth~+21%sequentialAccelerating
Business Performance & CEO Quote
Key Operating Metrics
DRAM (incl. HBM)~79% of revenue · core AI engine
NAND (Storage)~21% of revenue · DC SSD demand
HBM 2026 capacityFully sold out · priced & contracted
Targeted AI memory share20–25% of HBM market
Gross margin~81% record · pricing power
Hyperscaler capex backdrop$725B+ AI data center for 2026
Supply / demand catch-upNot until FY2028 (new fabs)
Strategic Drivers
Strategic Capacity Agreements7 major · price floors protect margin
HBM4 ramp2027 allocation · Vera Rubin platforms
DRAM tightnessHBM pivot reducing DRAM availability
HBM market size$35B (2025) → $100B by 2028
Implied HBM revenue path$7–9B today → $20–25B by 2028
New fab startup costs$100–200M/qtr · manageable
Competitive positionSK Hynix still leads HBM with Nvidia
"Market tightness is locked in to persist beyond calendar 2027 amid the AI buildout, diminishing technology gains, and the industry-wide pivot toward HBM — with subsequent impacts on the availability of DRAM. Our strategic capacity agreements, anchored by price floors, give us durable visibility into a structurally undersupplied market. This is the strongest demand environment Micron has ever operated in."
Sanjay Mehrotra, President & CEO  ·  Q3 FY2026 Earnings Call, June 24, 2026 (paraphrased)
Q4 FY2026 Guidance & Forward Outlook
Guidance & Structural Trajectory — Issued June 24, 2026
Q4 Revenue Guide
$50B ± $1B
vs $42.9B est.
Q4 implied QoQ growth
~+21%
Accelerating
Gross margin trajectory
Sustained 80%+
SCA floors
HBM 2026 capacity
Sold out ✓
Contracted
HBM4 2027 allocation
Ramping
Vera Rubin
Supply catches demand
Not until FY2028
New fabs
FY2027 EPS consensus
~$97.77
31 analysts
Positives & Concerns
Positives
The $50B Q4 revenue guide — roughly $7B above consensus — is the single most important takeaway. When a company at this scale guides that far above the Street, it signals genuine demand acceleration rather than a one-time supply squeeze. It confirms that the AI infrastructure cycle is broadening across the entire memory stack, not just GPUs and networking.
Strategic Capacity Agreements with explicit price floors structurally de-risk the thesis. Seven major contracts (four large, three medium) lock in pricing even if data center demand were to cool, transforming Micron from a boom-bust commodity name into a structural AI infrastructure supplier with durable margin visibility.
The HBM oligopoly is the durable moat. Only three companies make high-bandwidth memory at scale, the market is structurally undersupplied, and Micron's entire 2026 production is already sold out. Management guides tightness beyond calendar 2027, with supply unable to catch demand until new fabs deliver in FY2028 — a multi-year pricing tailwind.
Record ~81% gross margin — nearly double year-ago levels — demonstrates both product premium and cost-control prowess. With the HBM market projected to grow from $35B (2025) to $100B by 2028 and Micron targeting 20–25% share, HBM revenue could rise from $7–9B today toward $20–25B before accounting for DRAM, NAND, or other lines.
Concerns
Memory is historically the most cyclical segment in semiconductors. Every prior super-cycle ended in oversupply and a brutal pricing collapse. The market is now pricing permanence into an industry defined by boom-bust dynamics — the central risk to a stock that has run ~700% in one year.
Coordinated capacity additions across Micron, SK Hynix, and Samsung could eventually normalize pricing. All three are expanding, and while supply won't meaningfully catch demand until FY2028, the eventual arrival of new fabs is the structural threat to the record 81% margins underpinning the entire bull case.
AI efficiency and hardware demand volatility are real. Advances in model efficiency, a hyperscaler capex pause, or a shift in AI accelerator architecture would hit memory demand directly. Micron's concentration in the AI trade is a single point of failure if the buildout decelerates.
SK Hynix retains the leading HBM position with Nvidia. Micron remains the #2 player, and the key forward question is whether it can narrow the gap on HBM4 allocation for 2027 Vera Rubin platforms. Execution on the next-generation ramp is not guaranteed.
Macro overhang persists. Warsh's hawkish FOMC debut flipped the dot plot to a hike, and elevated yields pressure high-multiple growth names. A broad de-rating of the AI complex — independent of Micron's fundamentals — remains a risk given the stock's valuation after its historic run.
Analyst Coverage — Pre/Post Q3 FY2026
Wall Street Ratings — Around June 24, 2026
Firm / MetricViewNote
27 analysts — consensusStrong BuyNo sell ratings · avg price target ~$1,091 (lagging the stock)
RBC CapitalBuyRaised target from $525 to $1,200 (June 15) on AI demand
Cantor Fitzgerald (C.J. Muse)BuyStreet's most aggressive target at $1,500
Bank of AmericaBuy$1,500 target · HBM market to $100B by 2028
Bull caseBuy$50B Q4 guide + 81% margins + SCA price floors + sold-out HBM
Bear caseHold / NeutralMemory cyclicality + coordinated capacity adds + 700% run
Next earningsSep 22, 2026Q4 key watch: $50B guide delivery + HBM4 2027 allocation + margin durability
Earnings Verdict
Historic Quarter, Bigger Forecast — Structural AI Memory Play, Cyclical Risk Is the Only Bear
This was, by Micron's own framing, the biggest quarter in company history — and the Q4 guidance was even more remarkable than the print. Revenue of $41.46B (+346% YoY) and adjusted EPS of $25.11 both blew past estimates, but the $50B Q4 revenue guide — roughly $7B above consensus — is the number that re-rates the thesis. It confirms what NVDA, DELL, MRVL, and SNOW already signaled: the AI infrastructure cycle is broad, deep, and accelerating, and memory is now a binding constraint, not a follower. The structural case is genuinely stronger than the typical memory super-cycle: Strategic Capacity Agreements with price floors, HBM sold out through 2026, and management guiding tightness beyond calendar 2027 all reduce the classic boom-bust risk. The HBM oligopoly — three players, structurally undersupplied — gives Micron pricing power the commodity-DRAM era never offered. With FY2027 EPS consensus near $98, the $1T market cap is more defensible than the headline implies. The risk is not the quarter — it is memory's history. Every prior super-cycle ended in oversupply, and the same three players now expanding capacity could eventually normalize pricing. After a 700% one-year run, the stock prices substantial permanence into a historically cyclical industry. The +15% after-hours move shows the market still leans bull, but the durability of 81% margins through FY2028 is the thesis that has to hold. Next earnings September 22, 2026.
Revenue
$41.46B +346%
Adj. EPS
$25.11 +24%
Q4 Guide
$50B +$7B
Gross Margin
~81% Record
HBM 2026
Sold Out
Next Earnings
Sep 22, 2026